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The Fed Is The New Waffle House

Stocks

I had no idea the Fed could be such expert wafflers. But, as each month passes, it’s becoming clearer. The overall stock market trend, despite all the back-and-forth, yo-yo Fed decisions over the past 6 months, remains to the upside. Need proof? Check out this weekly S&P 500 chart for the past year:

Now, if you weren’t aware of any news, would you think any differently about this pullback to the 20-week EMA than prior tests to the same level? There was a volume spike, but keep in mind it was December monthly options expiration week. Quad-witching months (March, June, September, and December) typically are accompanied by heavier volume. The Friday market recovery occurred before any significant breakdown on this chart, which I find bullish. I view the stock market action from December 21st through December 31st to be the period where we normally see a “Santa Claus rally” – more on that below.

The Fed has made it clear in the past that they’ve been “data-dependent.” In the latest FOMC policy decision and subsequent press conference, however, Fed Chief Powell indicated that they’ve cut the number of anticipated rate cuts in 2025 from 4 to 2, because committee members feel that core inflation could be higher than they previously thought back in September, when the first rate cut was announced.

Here’s a problem I have, though. On Thursday, November 14th, the Associated Press reported the following:

The Fed acknowledged in this article that inflation remained persistent and above the Fed’s target 2% level. That day, Powell suggested that inflation may remain stuck somewhat above the Fed’s target level in coming months. But he reiterated that inflation should eventually decline. Given those November 14th remarks, if the Fed was concerned about inflation remaining elevated, then why not change their tune on 2025 interest rate cuts at the November 6-7 Fed meeting. If they’re truly “data dependent”, then what data changed from November 14th until the next Fed meeting on December 17-18 to prompt 2025 interest rate policy change?

Can I have a waffle, please?

Odds of a Santa Claus Rally

Again, I consider the Santa Claus rally to be from December 21st through December 31st, so let’s look at how many times this period has actually moved higher:

  • S&P 500: 58 of the last 74 years since 1950 (annualized return: +40.50%)
  • NASDAQ: 43 of the last 53 years since 1971 (annualized return: +61.80%)
  • Russell 2000: 31 of the last 37 years since 1987 (annualized return: +64.57%)

Based upon history, the odds of a Santa Claus rally is 78.4%, 81.1%, and 83.8% on the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, respectively. And you can see the annualized return for this period in the parenthesis above. I’d say there’s a ton of historical performance to suggest the odds that we’ll rally from here until year end are rather strong.

Nothing is ever a guarantee, however.

Max Pain

In my opinion, the media is promoting the idea that inflation is re-igniting and that the Fed is becoming more hawkish. I believe last week’s selling is due to EXACTLY what I talked about with our EarningsBeats.com members during our December Max Pain event on Tuesday. There was a TON of net in-the-money call premium and the big Wall Street firms aided their market-making units by telling us how bad the Fed’s actions and words are for the stock market. That Wednesday drop saved market makers an absolute FORTUNE. We pointed out to our members the downside market risk that existed, because of max pain. A day later, VOILA! It’s magic! The crazy afternoon selling was panicked selling at its finest, with the Volatility Index (VIX) soaring an astounding 74% in 2 hours! On Thursday and Friday, the VIX retreated back into the 18s (from 28) as if nothing ever happened.

There’s a reason why I preach every single month about options expiration and this was just another example of legalized thievery by the market makers. Let’s give them another golf clap.

MarketVision 2025

It’s almost time for my 2025 forecast, which will be a big part of our Saturday, January 4, 2025, 10:00am ET event. This year’s MV event, “The Year of Diverging Returns”, will feature myself and David Keller, President and Chief Strategist, Sierra Alpha Research. Many of you know Dave from StockCharts and also from his Market Misbehavior podcast. I’m looking forward to having Dave join me as we dissect what we believe is likely to transpire in 2025. For more information on the event and to register, CLICK HERE!

Happy holidays and I hope to see you there!

Tom

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Investing

Tech 5: Bitcoin Drops Below US$100,000, Micron Guidance Shakes Investors

Investing

Bitcoin surged early in the week before retracting below US$100,000, dampened by a hawkish rate cut from the US Federal Reserve that led to significant drops in both the crypto and stock markets.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 (INDEXNASDAQ:NDX) welcomed three new companies, and artificial intelligence leader NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) lost ground to networking giant Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO).

Find out what other key pieces of news made headlines in the tech space this week.

1. Bitcoin drops below US$100,000 on Fed cut

Bitcoin surged above US$107,800 this past weekend, fueled by factors like MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) recent Bitcoin purchases, and anticipation of an interest rate cut from the Fed.

Bitcoin historically performs well in December, and experts are saying that it’s in ‘Santa Claus mode.’

Adding to the excitement, Strike CEO Jack Mallers hinted on Tim Pool’s podcast that the US government may designate Bitcoin as a reserve asset through the Dollar Stabilization Act. Meanwhile, Digital Chamber founder Perianne Boring pointed to the stock-to-flow model on Fox Business, which predicts Bitcoin could hit US$800,000 by 2025’s end.

The cryptocurrency market kicked off the week at a market cap of US$3.9 trillion, up 0.3 percent in 24 hours.

As open interest neared US$70 billion on Monday (December 16), traders eyed figures between US$120,000 and US$154,000 as Bitcoin’s next target based on bull flag pattern and Fibonacci extension analysis.

Despite the bullish sentiment, Bitcoin experienced volatility on Tuesday (December 17). After retaking US$107,500 overnight and climbing to a new all-time high of US$108,135 following the opening bell, its price quickly sank below US$106,000, triggering around US$1.3 billion in liquidations.

Bitcoin performance, December 14 to 17, 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

This brief pullback confirmed a resistance zone between US$108,000 and US$111,000. Rekt Capital attributed this retracement to a typical pattern seen during price discovery phases.

Bitcoin’s volatility continued into Wednesday (December 18), and it declined steadily before and after the Fed’s meeting. The central bank announced a cut of 25 basis points as anticipated, but indicated that future reductions in 2025 may be less aggressive than initially projected. This shift in approach is attributed to recent economic data suggesting that the labor market is cooling and that inflation is stagnating above the Fed’s 2 percent target.

Chair Jerome Powell also asserted that the Fed is not allowed to own Bitcoin, potentially disrupting President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to implement a strategic reserve when he takes office in January.

This caused significant drops throughout the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling 3.75 percent in the two hours following Powell’s address. This was followed by further declines below US$100,000 on Wednesday evening.

Bitcoin performance, December 18 to 20, 2024.

Chart via CoinGecko.

On Thursday (December 19), Bitcoin fell to an intraday low of US$95,700, and the market cap for the crypto sector was down by 6 percent after Wall Street markets wrapped. Ether and Solana recorded losses of over 10 percent, while XRP slid 8.5 percent, reversing gains from earlier in the week ahead of the launch of Ripple’s stablecoin, RLUSD.

Losses extended into Friday morning, with Bitcoin dropping to US$92,245. The fall resulted in a bearish crossover, with over US$1 billion in liquidated positions, according to CoinGlass data.

QCP Capital attributed the losses to overly bullish market positioning and the Fed’s hawkish cut.

After the dip, Bitcoin’s price rebounded and held at around US$97,000 for most of Friday, a strong support zone identified by Glassnode founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft and Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. Recovery followed US personal consumption expenditures data that showed cooling inflation, easing investor concerns.

2. Micron’s quarterly guidance disappoints

Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) delivered results for its first fiscal quarter of 2025 after Wednesday’s closing bell, showing an 84 percent year-on-year revenue increase for the period.

“Data center revenue grew over 400 percent year over year and 40 percent sequentially, reaching a record level, with data center revenue mix surpassing 50 percent of Micron’s revenue for the first time,” the company said.

Micron performance, December 17 to 20, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

However, its guidance for its second fiscal quarter indicates a downshift in sales.

The company’s Q2 revenue guidance is US$7.9 billion, missing analysts’ expectations of US$7.93 billion. Non-GAAP earnings per share are anticipated to be US$1.26 compared to average projections of US$1.97.

“While consumer-oriented markets are weaker in the near term, we anticipate a return to growth in the second half of our fiscal year,” wrote President and CEO Sanjay Mehrotra in a press release.

“We continue to gain share in the highest margin and strategically important parts of the market and are exceptionally well positioned to leverage AI-driven growth to create substantial value for all stakeholders.”

Shares of Micron opened 13.2 percent lower on Thursday morning and hit US$85 shortly after the market opened. The company is ending the week down over 14 percent.

3. Broadcom surges as NVIDIA stumbles

Broadcom continued its upward trajectory this week, fueled by Friday’s rally. It reached a valuation higher than even NVIDIA, which stumbled into correction territory on Monday.

After a mid-week bump ahead of the Fed’s meeting, NVIDIA ultimately fell with the broader market as Powell signaled a hawkish stance, sinking further into correction territory.

Broadcom and NVIDIA performance, November 20 to December 20, 2024.

Chart via Google Finance.

While NVIDIA remains a powerhouse with a stellar year overall, Broadcom’s superior gains this month could signal a potential shift in the chip landscape, challenging NVIDIA’s dominance.

Shares of NVIDIA were down 7.67 percent on the month as of Friday afternoon, while Broadcom had gained over 35 percent. Its share price rose by nearly 40 percent following the release of its earnings report last week.

Adding to NVIDIA’s woes, reports suggest China is expanding its scrutiny of the company’s acquisitions beyond the 2020 Mellanox deal, potentially casting a shadow over its future growth prospects.

4. Samsung, Texas Instruments finalize Chips Act deal

Samsung Electronics (KRX:5930) and Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) are the two latest companies to receive government funding via US President Joe Biden’s Chips Act initiative. The deals were finalized on Friday, with Samsung set to receive up to US$4.75 billion and Texas Instruments getting US$1.6 billion.

While Texas Instruments’ final agreement aligns with an initial deal reached in August, Samsung’s funding was significantly reduced. The company stated that it adjusted its investment plan to improve efficiency and that the incentives were determined through negotiations with the US government, but did not provide specific details.

Texas Instruments’ funding will go toward building new chipmaking facilities in Utah and Texas. They will reportedly create 2,000 new company jobs and thousands more employment opportunities in construction and supply management. Samsung will use its award to expand its facilities in Central Texas.

5. Palantir, Axon and MicroStrategy join Nasdaq-100

Nasdaq (NASDAQ:NDAQ) released its annual list of changes to the Nasdaq-100 on Monday, with data analysis and security companies Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) and Axon Enterprises (NASDAQ:AXON) joining the index, along with business intelligence and analytics software firm MicroStrategy.

Palantir secured multiple contracts with the US Department of Defense in 2024, while Axon landed a contract with the Canadian government to supply body-worn cameras to the Royal Canadian Mountain Police in November.

MicroStrategy has been in the news this year due to several Bitcoin acquisitions. Over the weekend, the company acquired another 15,350 Bitcoin for US$1.5 billion. The acquisition was finalized on Sunday (December 15), bringing the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 439,000. The purchase was funded through share sales under the firm’s at-the-market program. According to its latest filing, MicroStrategy now has US$7.65 billion remaining.

Bloomberg estimates that MicroStrategy’s inclusion on the Nasdaq-100 will add at least US$2 billion in new stock purchases from the various exchange-traded funds that follow the index.

Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ:SMCI), on the other hand, saw its share price open over 14 percent lower on Monday following the news that it will be removed from the Nasdaq-100. It closed the week 0.85 percent higher.

Securities Disclosure: I, Meagen Seatter, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Economy

Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18%

Economy

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

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Economy

S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7%

Economy

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

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Stocks

Week Ahead: NIFTY’s Behavior Against This Level To Influence Trends For The Coming Weeks

Stocks

After staying in the green following a sharp rebound the week before this one, the markets finally succumbed to selling pressure after failing to cross above crucial resistance levels. The Nifty stayed under strong selling pressure over the past five sessions and violated key support levels on the daily charts. The range remained wider on the anticipated lines; the Nifty traded in a wide 1243-points range over the past days. Volatility shot up as well; the India VIX surged 15.48% higher to 15.07 on a weekly basis. Following a weak performance, the headline index closed with a weekly loss of 1180.80 points (-4.77%).

Over the past few days, the Nifty has shown many technical events highlighting the importance of some key levels. The Index resisted the 100-DMA for several days and the 20-week MA for some time; this highlights the importance of these levels as key resistance points for the markets. In the process, the Nifty closed below the key 200-DMA, placed at 23834 while dragging the resistance points lower. The Nifty has also closed a notch above the crucial 50-week MA level placed at 23530. The markets had staged a mosterous rebound when this level was tested before. The Nifty’s behavior against the level of 50-week MA would determine the trajectory not just for the coming week but also for the immediate near term as well.

Next week is truncated, with the Christmas holiday on Wednesday. Expect a tepid start to the week on Monday. The levels of 23750 and 23830 would act as potential resistance points. The supports come in at the 23500 and 23285 levels on the lower side.

The weekly RSI is 44.41; it stays neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below its signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated downside momentum. A large black candle occurring at the 20-week MA adds to the credibility of this level as a major resistance area for the markets.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that after completing the painful mean reversion process, the Nifty staged a strong technical rebound after it took support at the 50-week MA. The Index resisted at the 100-DMA and the 20-week MA, which are close to each other. The intense selling pressure over the coming week has seen the Nifty almost retesting the 50-week MA by closing just a notch above this point. The Nifty must keep its head above this crucial support level to keep its primary uptrend intact. If this level gets meaningfully violated, we might be in for a prolonged intermediate trend over the coming weeks.

Even if the trend remains weak and the downtrend continues, a modest technical rebound cannot be ruled out. However, it would still keep the markets under corrective retracement unless a few key levels are taken out on the upside. It is strongly recommended that leveraged exposures be kept at modest levels. All new exposures must be highly selective, and all gains, even modest ones, must be guarded very carefully. It is also recommended that one not rush in to shorten the markets so long as they are above 50-week MA, as there is a possibility of a modest technical rebound. A highly selective and careful approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show Nifty Bank, Financial Services, Services Sector, and the IT indices inside the leading quadrant. These sectors are likely to outperform the broader markets relatively.

The Nifty Pharma Index is inside the weakening quadrant. The Midcap 100 Index is also inside the weakening quadrant but is improving its relative momentum.

The Nifty Media, Energy, Commodities, Auto, and FMCG indices continue to lag inside the lagging quadrant. The Consumption Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant as well. These groups are likely to underperform the broader Nifty 500 Index relatively. The Nifty PSE Index is also inside the lagging quadrant but is improving its relative momentum against broader markets.

The Infrastructure Index has rolled inside the improving quadrant and is likely to begin its phase of relative outperformance. The Realty and the PSU Bank Indices are also inside the improving quadrant. The Metal Index, also inside the improving quadrant, is sharply giving up on its relative momentum.

Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

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Investing

Stardust Power Acquires Site, Receives Key Permit And Receives Approval For Major Construction To Commence

Investing

Stardust Power Inc.(“the Company” or “Stardust Power”) (NASDAQ: SDST), an American developer of battery-grade lithium products, today announced the completion of the acquisition of its 66-acre site at the Southside Industrial Park in Muskogee, Oklahoma. This key acquisition marks another significant milestone as the Company prepares to commence construction on one of North America’s largest lithium refineries. With the General Permit for Stormwater Discharges from Construction Activities now in place, and subject to finalizing project financing, Stardust Power is now positioned to begin construction.

Caption: Governor of Oklahoma, J. Kevin Stitt, and Founder and CEO, Stardust Power, Roshan Pujari, met December 2, 2024, to discuss the upcoming construction of its lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma

Stardust Power received this permit from the Oklahoma Department of Environmental Quality and has completed its Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP), which incorporates best-in-class management practices to control stormwater discharges during construction and is designed to ensure compliance with environmental standards and minimize potential impacts on the surrounding area. This critical permit allows Stardust Power to commence construction at the site. In the coming weeks, Stardust Power plans to submit the remaining necessary permits, marking the final regulatory steps at this junction. This marks a significant milestone for the Company and its mission to onshore manufacturing of battery grade lithium for US energy independence.

In January 2024, Stardust Power selected Muskogee, Oklahoma for its lithium refinery, citing the state’s central location and excellent access to multi-modal logistics. The site benefits from proximity to the country’s largest inland waterway system, robust road and rail networks, and a skilled workforce rooted in the oil and gas sector. Oklahoma’s leadership in sustainable energy aligns with Stardust Power’s commitment to reducing its carbon footprint. The shovel-ready site near the Port of Muskogee offers key construction and operational advantages, with the potential to speed up timelines. After thorough due diligence, including environmental, technical, cultural, and logistical reviews, the site was confirmed as ideal. It offers a location with an adjacent 40-acre parcel of land which the Company has a right of first refusal for future expansion.

Roshan Pujari, Founder and CEO of Stardust Power, stated, ‘With the land purchase complete and key permitting secured, we are excited to enter the construction phase in Muskogee. This milestone brings us closer to our mission of becoming a leading supplier of American battery-grade lithium. We are deeply grateful for the ongoing support from Governor Stitt, the Department of Environmental Quality, the Oklahoma Department of Commerce, the Tulsa Chamber, and the City and Port of Muskogee. Together, we endeavor to create hundreds of high-quality manufacturing jobs and keep Oklahoma at the forefront of America’s energy leadership. While the site’s infrastructure and logistics are outstanding, the true asset of Oklahoma is its people.’

Earlier this year, the City and County of Muskogee established a $27 million Tax Increment Financing (“TIF”) district to support the project. The TIF is expected to fund key infrastructure improvements in the area, including upgrades to industrial roads, rail line rehabilitation, and the replacement of a trestle bridge, improvements that are important to the successful development of the refinery. Stardust Power intends to claim back certain related costs from TIF related to the site, which could reduce overall project costs and improve margins.

About Stardust Power Inc.

Stardust Power is a developer of battery-grade lithium products designed to bolster America’s energy leadership by building resilient supply chains. Stardust Power is developing a strategically central lithium refinery in Muskogee, Oklahoma with the anticipated capacity of producing up to 50,000 metric tons per annum of battery-grade lithium. The Company is committed to sustainability at each point in the process. Stardust Power trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “SDST.”

For more information, visit www.stardust-power.com

Stardust Power Contacts

For Investors:
Johanna Gonzalez
investor.relations@stardust-power.com

For Media:
Michael Thompson
media@stardust-power.com

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements in this press release constitute “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are often identified by words such as “believe,” “may,” “will,” “estimate,” “continue,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “expect,” “should,” “would,” “plan,” “predict,” “forecasted,” “projected,” “potential,” “seem,” “future,” “outlook,” and similar expressions that predict or indicate future events or trends or otherwise indicate statements that are not of historical matters, but the absence of these words does not mean that a statement is not forward-looking. These forward-looking statements and factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations include, but are not limited to: the ability of Stardust Power to grow and manage growth profitably, maintain key relationships and retain its management and key employees; obtaining the necessary permits and governmental approvals to develop the site; the impact of the TIF on the site development and surrounding areas and infrastructure, and Stardust Power’s ability to benefit from such program; risks related to the uncertainty of the projected financial information with respect to Stardust Power; risks related to the price of Stardust Power’s securities, including volatility resulting from changes in the competitive and highly regulated industries in which Stardust Power plans to operate, variations in performance across competitors, changes in laws and regulations affecting Stardust Power’s business and changes in the combined capital structure; and risks related to the ability to implement business plans, forecasts, and other expectations and identify and realize additional opportunities. The foregoing list of factors is not exhaustive.

Stockholders and prospective investors should carefully consider the foregoing factors, and the other risks and uncertainties described in documents filed by Stardust Power from time to time with the SEC.

Stockholders and prospective investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date made, are not a guarantee of future performance and are subject to a number of uncertainties, risks, assumptions and other factors, many of which are outside the control of Stardust Power. Stardust Power expressly disclaims any obligations or undertaking to release publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change in the expectations of Stardust Power with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which any statement is based.

Source

This post appeared first on investingnews.com

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Economy

Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18%

Economy

Stock futures are trading slightly lower Monday morning as investors gear up for the final month of 2024. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.18%, alongside declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average futures and Nasdaq 100 futures, which dropped 0.13% and 0.17%, respectively. The market’s focus is shifting to upcoming economic data, particularly reports on manufacturing and construction spending, ahead of this week’s key labor data releases.

November was a standout month for equities, with the S&P 500 futures rallying to reflect the index’s best monthly performance of the year. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved all-time highs during Friday’s shortened trading session, with the Dow briefly surpassing 45,000. Small-cap stocks also saw robust gains, with the Russell 2000 index surging over 10% in November, buoyed by optimism around potential tax cuts.

As trading kicks off in December, investors are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in Europe, where France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.77% amid political concerns, while Germany’s DAX and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 showed smaller declines.

S&P 500 futures will likely continue to act as a key barometer for market sentiment, particularly as traders assess the impact of upcoming economic data and global market developments.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

This 15-minute chart of the S&P 500 Index shows a recent trend where the index attempted to break above the resistance level near 6,044.17 but retraced slightly to close at 6,032.39, reflecting a minor decline of 0.03% in the session. The candlestick pattern indicates some indecisiveness after a steady upward momentum seen earlier in the day.

On the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, the value sits at 62.07, having declined from the overbought zone above 70 earlier. This suggests that the bullish momentum might be cooling off, and traders could anticipate a short-term consolidation or slight pullback. However, with RSI above 50, the overall trend remains positive, favoring buyers.

The index’s recent low of 5,944.36 marks a key support level, while the high at 6,044.17 could act as resistance. If the price sustains above the 6,020 level and RSI stabilizes without breaking below 50, the index could attempt another rally. Conversely, a drop below 6,020 could indicate a bearish shift.

In conclusion, the index displays potential for continued gains, but traders should watch RSI levels and price action near the support and resistance zones for confirmation.

The post Stock Futures Lower after S&P 500 futures ticked down 0.18% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

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Economy

S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7%

Economy

Stock futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by strong performances from Salesforce and Marvell Technology, following upbeat quarterly earnings. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 215 points (0.5%), while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced by 0.7%.

Salesforce surged 12% after reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, showcasing robust demand in the enterprise software sector. Meanwhile, chipmaker Marvell jumped 14% after surpassing earnings estimates and providing optimistic fourth-quarter guidance, indicating resilience in the semiconductor industry.

This movement follows a mixed session on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed with small gains, while the Dow dipped slightly. The broader market has experienced a modest start to December, contrasting with November’s robust rally, but analysts anticipate a resurgence in momentum. LPL Financial’s George Smith pointed out that December historically sees strong market performance, particularly in the latter half of the month.

However, economic data introduced some caution. ADP’s report revealed that private payrolls grew by just 146,000 in November, missing estimates of 163,000. This signals potential softness in the labor market, with investors now awaiting Friday’s November jobs report for further clarity.

S&P 500 Index Chart Analysis

Based on the provided stock chart, which appears to be a 15-minute candlestick chart for the S&P 500 Index, here’s a brief analysis:

The chart shows a clear upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish momentum over the analyzed period. The index has steadily climbed from a low of approximately 5,855 to a recent high of 6,053.58, suggesting strong buying interest.

Key resistance is observed near 6,050-6,053 levels, as the price has struggled to break above this zone in the most recent sessions. If the index breaches this level with strong volume, it could lead to further upward movement. Conversely, failure to break out may lead to a pullback, with potential support around the 6,000 psychological level and 5,980, where consolidation occurred previously.

The candlestick patterns show relatively small wicks, indicating limited volatility, which could imply steady market confidence. However, the bullish rally could be overextended, warranting caution for traders, especially if any negative catalysts emerge.

In summary, the short-term trend is bullish, but traders should monitor resistance levels and volume for signs of a breakout or reversal. It’s also essential to watch broader market factors, as indices are often influenced by macroeconomic data and sentiment.

The post S&P 500 climbed 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.7% appeared first on FinanceBrokerage.

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Stocks

2024’s Big Bang: A Deeper Dive Into the Hindenburg Omen

Stocks

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending. Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1? First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history. What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks? He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

  1. The broad equity markets are in an uptrend
  2. At least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same day
  3. The McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within one month. Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020, going into the COVID peak, in December 2021, just before the 2022 bear market, and in December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar. Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks? Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider. I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018. Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out. I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, it doesn’t tell me to blindly take action! What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation. By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September. And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty. And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large-cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness. One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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